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October 18, 2019, Capabilities

Automotive Deployment Options Projection Tool (ADOPT) and Biomass Scenario Model (BSM)

Capability Title Automotive Deployment Options Projection Tool (ADOPT) and Biomass Scenario Model (BSM)
Laboratory National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)
Capability experts Aaron Brooker (NREL), Emily Newes (NREL)
Description ADOPT is a vehicle consumer choice and stock model which estimates vehicle technology improvement impacts on future U.S. light-duty vehicle sales, energy use, and emissions; it is currently being expanded to also contain heavy-duty vehicles. The BSM is a dynamic model of the domestic bioenergy supply chain that integrates resource availability, physical/technological/economic constraints, behavior, and policy to track the deployment of bioenergy technologies. ADOPT and BSM were linked to create an integrated model that incorporates the purview and finances of all major stakeholders in a fuel market: the drivers, vehicle manufacturers, fuel retailers, and fuel producers. ADOPT is available for download at: https://www.nrel.gov/transportation/adopt.html. The BSM is available for download at: https://github.com/NREL/bsm-public.
Limitations
  • Lack of data – can be estimated using surrogate information
  • BSM doesn’t consider uncertainties in process design and overall costs but can evaluate impacts with sensitivity analysis
  • ADOPT doesn’t consider large changes in transportation modes (mass transit, TNC)
  • ADOPT doesn’t consider how multivehicle households may be more open to one vehicle with range/recharge time limitations
Unique aspects The combination of BSM and ADOPT creates a holistic view of how a vehicle fleet and fuel supply could evolve together over time, given different constraints and assumptions.
Availability The analysis team is available for consultation with industry and academic partners.
Citations/references

Brooker, A., Gonder, J., Lopp, S., and Ward, J., “ADOPT: A Historically Validated Light Duty Vehicle Consumer Choice Model,” SAE Technical Paper 2015-01-0974, 2015, doi:10.4271/2015-01-0974.

Kontou, E., Melaina, M., and Brooker A., “”Light-Duty Vehicle Attribute Projections (Years 2015–2030),” California Energy Commission Consultant Report, 2018, https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/70455.pdf.

Gonder, J, Brooker, A., Wood, E., and Moniot, M., ”Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator (FASTSim) Validation Report,” National Renewable Energy Laboratory Report, 2018, https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/70455.pdf.

Johnson, Caley, Emily Newes, Aaron Brooker, Robert McCormick, Steve Peterson, Paul Leiby, Rocio Uria Martinez, Gbadebo Oladosu, and Maxwell Brown. “High-Octane Mid-Level Ethanol Blend Market Assessment.” Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, December 2015. http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/63698.pdf.

Peterson, Steve, Brian Bush, Daniel Inman, Emily Newes, Amy Schwab, Dana Stright, and Laura Vimmerstedt. “Lessons from a Large-Scale Systems Dynamics Modeling Project: The Example of the Biomass Scenario Model.” System Dynamics Review 35, no. 1 (2019): 55–69. https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1620.

Peterson, Steve, Emily Newes, Daniel Inman, Laura Vimmerstedt, David Hsu, Corey Peck, Dana Stright, and Brian Bush. “An Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model.” In The 31st International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. Cambridge, Massachusetts, 2013. http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2013/proceed/papers/P1352.pdf.

Vimmerstedt, Laura J., Brian Bush, and Steve Peterson. “Ethanol Distribution, Dispensing, and Use: Analysis of a Portion of the Biomass-to-Biofuels Supply Chain Using System Dynamics.” PLoS ONE 7, no. 5 (May 14, 2012): e35082. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0035082.

Vimmerstedt, Laura J., Brian W. Bush, Dave D. Hsu, Daniel Inman, and Steven O. Peterson. “Maturation of Biomass-to-Biofuels Conversion Technology Pathways for Rapid Expansion of Biofuels Production: A System Dynamics Perspective.” Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining 9, no. 2 (March 1, 2015): 158–76. https://doi.org/10.1002/bbb.1515.